A huge swell heads for California: the buoys live, offshore to the coast

On Thursday evening, 12 November, Pacific time, a storm raises 14.6 m of significant wave height 950 nautical miles west-northwest of San Francisco, according to the ECMWF model. It then tracks east-southeast, straight at Northern California. Its swell, around 18 seconds long, should cross the whole buoy network in about thirty hours.

What the model expects

Buoy 46006, 600 miles off Eureka, should get it first, peaking near 13 m on Friday morning. Buoy 46059, 357 miles off San Francisco, follows late Friday afternoon at around 10 m. At the coast, from Point Arena to Monterey, the peak is due on Saturday between 3am and 8am, around 6 to 8 m at 18 seconds. By Sunday the sea drops back toward 4 m.

I picked ECMWF because it was the model closest to the buoys and satellites in this area over the past six days.

What I'm following here

The very first waves of a swell this long arrive before the height does: the buoys' period jumps to 18 or 20 seconds while the sea hasn't built yet. Here I log, buoy by buoy, when those forerunners arrive and when the peak has passed, with the measured values. Every three hours, a map sums up all ten buoys.

Times in this text are Pacific time. The full forecast is on marc.labouee.app.